I think after this Round what we might do is a final Division forecast for some fun to see what happens & who's going where for the rest of the season & maybe try an update after R12 so we can track each third of the season & look to predict the absolute unpredictable for final standings after R18. What could possibly go wrong?!
Anyway back to reality & welcome to R6 which is the start of the 'catch me if you can' Sorrento road show. Sorrento have Morley away & 2 of the next 3 games at home so 1 White needs a few cat among the pigeons while 2nd & 3rd need big wins to stay in touch. If certain result go Sorrento's way they'll be 2-3 games ahead of 3rd, 4th & 5th after only 6 games with some pretty easy games to come before the break. It might seem early to chat on this level but this is predominantly where the damage is done & if you are not thereabouts after R6, statistically it will be very difficult to make dramatic improvements after then
There will be a very interesting potential gap appearing if Ossy Park & Warwick get their expected results which will leave a near 2 game gap (the average game is worth ~5pts to a top team) between 2nd/3rd & the rest of the table. Having a 2 game spread on the rest of the rest would give both teams a huge buffer this earlier in the season. So Cockburn beating Wanneroo & Rossmoyne losing to Warwick will make it very difficult for any mid-table team to grab 2nd or 3rd turning for home in R10 or R11, trying to recover at least 10-12pts over those teams over the next 4-5 Rounds.
KARDINYA v BASSENDEAN
KARDINYA
G Fewings, W Bezant, C Vinci, W Lee
R Knapp, T Cocodis, R McNamara, L Phillips
M Yates, S Vinci, C Booth, J Galipo
C Stokes, I Barrie, J Rochford, G Knight IN: W Lee OUT: R Hawke
BASSENDEAN
J Krstic, T Lynch, W Davidson, N Kirkup
E O'Sullivan, A Smith, T Alden, J Davies
R Revell, B Dinnison, R D'Souza, J Holman
M Erceg, P Madigan, J Morss, D Snelgar IN: J Davies OUT: P Harber
The Kats will be disappointed that they got close across most rinks last week but just failed to deliver to keep the momentum going forward. So I'm sure they'll have regrouped & targeted this game as critical to getting their campaign back on track. Where 2 wins from 5 isn't an ideal start, however 3 of those games were at away & they now have 2 of 3 from home which could be the difference coming into the festive break.
Basso need to lift across the board, big time. The backend is there to finish these games but it just doesn't seem to be firing & to be the only team with Morley to not have a skipper in the top 25 shows its systematic across the 4 rinks. The positives are there in that there's not very many big blow outs so a few good or lucky bowls here & there could be difference. Also it’s good to see the confidence is there with the current 16, as other teams tinker with positions, the Lions are holding tight in belief with only 1 change this week. They do need more rinks wins as 5 over 5 Rounds isn't enough to give them a late chance in games of nabbing an Agg but that’ll come sooner than later.
The Kats look set to pickup a well needed home win, possibly by 15+.
Kardinya 7 - 1
WARWICK v ROSSMOYNE
WARWICK
J Post, M Golding, I Sparrowhawk, H Robartson
G Hinge, G Smith, V Giuffre, R Loran
J Borkowski, A Hornby, C Boyle, D Herbert
B Ledingham, P Marinovich, D Dunstan, B McNamara IN: R Newstead OUT: H Robartson
ROSSMOYNE
L Jervies, R Halse, M Hughes, V Andrews
E Gollan, R Vind, D Green, B O'Brien
R Lang, D Haddow, D Price, B Cranswick
A Petchell, W Harvey, R Mitchell, P Lees IN: OUT: No change
Warwick are not missing much so far & are working through the wins nicely. They fought well last week at Basso to grind out a solid away win & back to the home ground advantage this week.
Warwick are in a similar position to Osborne Park as serious chasing contenders for the top spot & have a similar few weeks because they have a bottom side next week in R7 & then have a huge R8 game v Sorrento at home. If they take care of the next 2 weeks they too could easily have a bite at the top of the ladder cherry & could go into the break on top. Plenty of bowls between now & then but they have themselves in a very nice position.
The River Rats balloon has deflated very quickly over the last few weeks & they'll need a big away win here to get that winning feeling back pumping through the veins. They don't want to go 3 from 3 & then drop 3 from 3, so they'll be coming swinging from the start. Both losses were to top sides so there's merit in those loses. We will need to work through another few rounds to see their away form come through as the only 2 games so far were Morley & Sorrento which is chalk & cheese. If Warwick can get the greens running fast & long they might get a good early jump on the Rats & they'll be hard to pull back later on.
Warwick 6 - 2
WANNEROO v COCKBURN
WANNEROO
C Buchholz, D Griffin, R Humphryson, H Whitman
D Turra, E Widermanski, B Nelson, B McMurdo
N Costello, S Denny, N Palmer, L Bryson
H Ward, D Anderson, G Sarich, B Bucowski IN: S Denny OUT: D Anderson
COCKBURN
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, , , IN: OUT:
Wanneroo can do little harm at the moment as they maintain a good look at the top 4. Yes the loss to the Kats didn’t help but away on carpet is probably not their strong point. Dominating against some good sides has positioned themselves very well for the next few weeks where they’ll have some easier games. They’re not just winning well, they’re picking up a significant portion of the rinks with those wins. The Roo’s are sitting 5th but yet have the same rink wins as 2nd & 3rd which is a good sign for them.
Cockburn were great last week against the Kats & needed to be to lock down that home ground advantage. Away form has been ok so they don’t mind travelling. TePania is still carry a heavy load for Cockburn but doing it impressively. If the Roos let him off to a soft start it could definitely make the difference for the Roosters.
The difference is probably the backend for the Roos as they bring a number of options especially at home when the front ends can dominant to give them plenty of options. The faster the geek the better for Wanneroo but the Roosters are no chickens when it comes to high scoring attacking bowls.
Wanneroo 7 - 1
MORLEY v SORRENTO
MORLEY
W Mitchell, K Nazareth, B Driscoll, C Hamilton
T Dawson, G Grieve, P Leyland, B Harris
L Sanders, J Thomas, J Engelen, W Hinchcliffe
W Barker, V Princi, P Wharram, R Dunstan IN: P Wharram, B Harris OUT: R Geilke, T Vlahos
SORRENTO
C Lander, R Cunningham, B Lucas, F Tyson
R Butler, L Oldham, B Gunson, Kain
S Loftus, P Flack, G Taylor, P Morgan
S Rixom, M Hulbert, B Kiely, G Murray IN: Kain OUT: M Burton
Morley are still chasing that first win & it’ll come soon but it’ll be very difficult to achieve that this weekend v Sorrento. This will be a good barometer for them to measure up to as they had some weaker teams recently where they got fairly close to the Agg.
Sorrento are travelling very nicely, scoring for fun & grabbing near maximum points home or away. The change on that 4th rink seems to be working & that’s the last thing other teams need to hear is that they’re tweaking & getting stronger. Although, the reality on PL status can only be confirmed if they continue to dominant as 4 of the teams here don’t get much of a look into their own PL sides so they’ll need to maintain a high bar throughout the season. In fairness, the same goes for Warwick, Rossmoyne & Wanneroo.
Overall without getting too involved in this game, it’s Swans all the way with the Mavericks looking to nab a point or 2.
I would doubt the Seagulls will leave any scraps on the table here & board the bus back to Sorrento with the full 8.
Sorrento 8 - 0
OSBORNE PARK v SOUTH PERTH
OSBORNE PARK
J Thorn, J Carter, G Smith, I Bryden
M Dewson, M Pasalich, S Pasalich, P Potts
T Weir, C Fleay, R Clark, A McCullagh
F Di Giuseppe, M Carmichael, B Boyd, P Allen IN: S Pasalich OUT: L Bell
SOUTH PERTH
J Opie, M McRae, J Percival, J Cunningham
B Roelefs, D Bandy, R Negus, J McDonnell
D Calvo, G Reagan, P Holmes, M Petrich
A Sharp, V Santostefano, E Munnelly, L Moretti IN: J Opie, A Sharp, V Santostefano OUT: W Skuza, S Frosh, L Bandy
I started this draft yesterday and held little confidence in South Perth, not so much because of their position near the bottom but more so due to the Saints momentum and superb results to date. Well that draft has well & truly been ripped up after I've seen the selections for the Millers. Unsure of the exact reasoning but I hear work commitments from both PL players was the underlying reason as South Perth are playing a Friday night game this week v Doubleview. Either way it's 1 White's gain for the Millers as they warmly welcome Justin Opie & Ash Sharp into skippering roles for 2 of the weaker rinks. Whether this changes everything....probably not but their front ends seem pretty solid & hold their own so having a higher level of execution on the backend will certainly help. It will need to be significant all the same to topple a Saints side in scintillating form, sitting 0.5pt behind 2nd spot on the ladder. Overall South Perth need to lock down the defence which they did superbly last year as they were the most miserable team to score against. Unfortunately this year it's a flood gate where they have the 2nd worst 'against' score & averaging nearly 86 shots against, where last year they only conceded an average of 70 shots. Different division but 16 shots would of got them a few Agg's so far so it's something to work on. Few changes across the other rinks too in a significant shake up. Bandy drops into 3rd behind Roelofs which you might think should be the other way around considering Bandy is probably their best skipper but that’ll surely be a good rink. Calvo maintains the last skippers spot & takes Petrich in as lead. Again maybe tactics playing out but it was probably the exact opposite last year when Calvo was front end & Petrich skipping. If I remember, Petrich was the rink who dominated finals & won a huge playoff final v Spearwood to carry the Agg, being somewhat instrumental in getting South Perth promoted to 1 White. Sharp gets a younger attacking rink so that should also be an interesting mix.
On the flip side, Osborne Park are settled, scoring well & defending very well with very few blow outs which shows a nice settled balance. Speaking of settled, leads the conversation straight to DiGiuseppe's rink as they are on fire at the moment & are the driving force for the Saints over the last month. Winning again last week gives them 4 from 5 and again when they win they do so by double figures which is saying alot & ably supported by Allan, Boyd & Carmichael who are playing superb. Weir is also travelling well with 2 strong wins on the trot. The result will probably hinge around those 2 matchups for the Millers to have a chance. If they cards get drawn right & they can get Opie & Sharp on those rinks they'll have a big chance.
There’s a good chance a big win here for the Saints will leave them clear 2nd & wouldn’t that line up for an absolute cracker of a game to see who sits top of the ladder when they then play Sorrento in R7!! This game will be a lot closer than previously anticipated but I think the Saints have enough to win by smaller than 10 shots but I'll be pretty keen to see the final result.