Into the final 3 games here & over the next 14 days from Saturday we will see many things change with some dreams destroyed & new ones created. It will be one of the toughest 14 days in 1 White history as we still have only 8pts between 1st & 4th and then 3pts between 5th & 8th, it literally couldn't be any closer coming into the final few games.
We have a very simple equation at the top....whoever wins 3 games has a chance of a red carpet walk into the PL. If any team loses 1 game then you would think their chances are blown but they'll have a chance like Rossmoyne last year where finishing anywhere in the top 4 was good enough as the River Rats finished 3rd but still got a ticket to the big show.
At the bottom the equation is slightly easier in that both Osborne Park & Kardinya are now destined for 1 Blue but they are unlikely to stay down there too long with the quality they have.
For the playoffs, from what I can see, the top 1 Blue 2nd side plays the 3rd side with the winner playing 8th (currently Quinns Rocks) & the other 1 Blue 2nd side who finished with less points play their 3rd positioned team with the winner playing 7th (currently Warwick). So for Quinns that would be probably Yokine, whom they would know quite well from 1 Blue last year & beat 7-1 away to Yokine & Quinns also beat them 7-1 at home last year. Therefore you would think that even if things didn't work out for Quinns over the coming weeks they have some comfort coming into the playoff's. For Warwick it might be tricker to predict but it might possibly be Manning 1 or Fremantle. Now on Magpies day I would not foresee a problem in them easily tackling both those sides & remaining in 1 White. Early days as there is still a huge amount to play for, lets see what surprises this weekend brings first & we might do a quick predictor after this Round.
KARDINYA v MOSMAN PARK
N Ball, W Bezant, R Knapp, D Wood
S Vinci, G Fewings, C Vinci, M Holt
C Stokes, C Booth, K Stower, G Knight
J Rochford, R McNamara, ???, J Edgar IN: ??? OUT: W Lee
C Hoffman, M Cranswick, T Cranswick, R Kershaw
D Marsland, S Swanson, W Tan, T Massang
S Edmonds, L Beurteaux, D Adams, M Van Bemmel
S Jocelyn, A Gryta, M Robertson, P Fair IN: P Fair OUT: G Hagan
Bottom v Top in this critical game with nothing to play for the Kats & everything is on the line for the Mossies. This should be a walk in the (Mosman) Park for the Mossies as they will look to grab maximum points. The Kats haven't found their home form this year & the Mossies are playing good away from home.
There are some threats & opportunities on both sides which might be a focus for both teams. The Kats might find it hard to identify some kinks but may be looking at Jocelyn's side for some opportunities since they are only 3 from 8, running at -23shots. For Mossies, it might be Bezant's side with 4 losses on the trot, running a -53shots. Neither side really have that dominant side which is surprising as you would think the ladder leaders would have a skipper in the top 5 skippers ladder. Although they have 2 in the Top10 but the remainder are around that 20th spot. I would like to get a front end callout to Van Bemmel who's leading this season is superb & has given the Mossies a very strong front end to work most games.
The Mossie should have enough fire power for the Kats here & would love 8pts. The Kats can use this as a building block for next year by challenging themselves against a potential PL side which will greatly help life in 1 Blue.
Mosman Park 7 - 1
WARNBRO v QUINNS ROCKS
K Cousens, T Dellar, J Pattullo, D Sudden
W Baker, D Pattullo, I Gibson, B Starling
L Strange, Dr G Jackson, A Shone, T Lutey
S Mawdsley, K Bancroft, M Rae, D Kitson IN: P Guelfi, D Phillips OUT: D Sudden, T Lutey
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, , , IN: OUT:
The Wizards will be kicking themselves all week after the last Round & having the extra week off won't have helped. They will be itching to get out of the blocks early against Quinns who wouldn't be fancying the long drive down the Kwinana even before mentioning their Away record. With only 1 away win to the Kats this season & no other game breaking 67 shots, they will need early scores to stay on top of the Wizards.
The Wizards are solid at home, only dropping 1 game to the Kats so I suppose if Quinns beat the Kats & Warnbro lost to the Kats at home, Quinns are surely the better side?! The big advantage for Quinns is that Warnbro do not generally put teams to the sword at home so they might have a chance late on, then again they have also scored 111shots at home so they can score if they are given the leeway. Warnbro will probably look for that Mawdsley v Cantrill matchup to blow the game open early. I would like to get a front end callout to Kitson who's leading this season is brilliant & gave the Wizards plenty to build on all season.
If Quinns do not get 2pts from here I will start to get worried for them as their run home isn't easy. The Wizards will want that big 8pts, leaving them right behind Mossies with an absolute blockbuster R17 clash for the top spot.
Warnbro 7 - 1
SAFETY BAY v BASSENDEAN
C Owen, R Kennedy, P Daynes, S Gallon
C Carruthers, Z Boddy, G Wilkes, S Foran
G Taylor, S Hide, G Ogg, L Piper
R Hall, A Holmes, J Thorington, S McBriar IN: No changes OUT:
E O'Sullivan, J Morss, M Potente, D Snelgar
T Lynch, B Tie, W Davidson, N Kirkup
A Caccioppoli, J Krstic, G Needs, M Bessant
R Revell, B Dinnison, H Goddard, M Watson IN: M Watson, J Krstic OUT: A Parravicini, N Smith
If the Bay could tidy up that 4th rink they would be looking at a PL spot. They have the most skippers in the top section of the skippers ladder & they have won the most Rinks of ANY team this season at 37.5 rink wins. To put that in comparison Basso below them have only won 30 rinks all season & Warnbro above them have only won 33 rinks, they are even 2 rinks ahead of Mosman Park. Therefore, you would have to think if that 4th rink could lock down a better defense them they would easily be top of the ladder. For example, the games they have not won they have had 1 rink losing by double figures nearly every time, R3-16shots, R5-10shots, R7-10shots, R8-14shots, R13-12shots, R15-14shots. Fine lines but again something they can improve upon to get them to the next level.
Again similar with the Lions where they can't find that dominant skipper so they need to rely on everyone chipping in every week to get them over the line, which is great teamwork. In saying that they will need at least 2pts from here, worse case scenario. They have Warnbro in a blockbuster in R18 so they definitely do not want to be relying on getting 6pts in that game. So 2pts here & 7pts next week at home to the Kats should see them safe for another year.
The Bay have only lost 1 home game all season & 3 of those wins broke the 100+ shots so Basso will need to be turned in early to avoid a blowout here.
Safety Bay 7 - 1
OSBORNE PARK v WARWICK
J Carter, C Fleay, B Boyd, I Bryden
F Di Giuseppe, R Clark, J Minchin, T Evans
M Pasalich, P Allen, A Pasalich, L Bell
T Ingram, G Smith, A Garlick, M Swift IN: J Minchin, A Garlick OUT: C Taboni, B Poggi
G Smith, C Shier, M Golding, D Herbert
G Hinge, B McNamara, R Loran, G Bobridge
B Ledingham, C Boyle, K Pearce, D Dunstan
J Borkowski, A Hornby, A Henneker, I Sparrowhawk IN: G Bobridge, C Shier OUT: L Hill, R Newstead
Who would have thought that the Saints would be running a 3 from 4 with some huge scalps in there after running a 2 from 11, amazing turnaround. Albeit not enough for them to stay up, unless there is some horrendous capitulation above them. They do have 2 more home games & could finish 5 from 9 at home but there are some tough games in there & trying to recover 15pts over 3 games will be extremely difficult as you would imagine the above teams will still be grabbing a few 1's & 2's as they go.
Warwick is a very similar story only better as they woke up after R10 & put on their big boys pants & came to play. Since then they are running a 4 from 5 with only 1 other side doing similar & they are top of the ladder. What an incredible come back of sorts & something they'll be very proud of as a club. The 1 from 6 at the start of the season really killed them but they have only lost 3 games since then & have grabbed some serious scalps along the way. However, it is only starting for them now & they eye the impossible after R6, SAFETY. Yes they are only 0.5pt from safety in 6th spot but they have a very tough R17 & then play the 6th team in R18 which will be a huge game for both sides & ensure this one goes right down to the wire.
If the Magpies can get Hinge on someone like Cater who's running 0 from 7 & get Borkowski/Ledingham tight on Pasalich & DiGiuseppe, they'll be in with a huge chance but that's easier said than done.
For me the Saints are superb at home with the last 2 wins against Warnbro & Wanneroo so as much as I'd like to see the Magpies prevail, it is very hard to go against the home side on current form.
Osborne Park 6 - 2
GOSNELLS v WANNEROO
G Nicol, S Harris, N Tulett, D Bradbury
B Holland, G Lynch, T Auckland, M Rickard
E Gahan, T Close, P Gale, C Watters
F Carbone, C Hickinbotham, P Deas, R McKay IN: No changes OUT:
D Turra, E Widermanski, B Nelson, B McMurdo
K Toster, D Griffin, G Jack, H Whitman
H Ward, M Nievelstein, G Sarich, B Bucowski
D Triffitt, L Bryson, N Palmer, J Tailor IN: B Bucowski OUT: R Burns
Another huge game for both sides. Gosnells need a home win desperately to avoid getting dragged into the playoff's & Wanneroo need a huge win here just to keep themselves in the running for the top spot.
Again trying to open up opportunities & threats to make things more exciting this round, I feel Ideally Wanneroo would like to get Toster onto Gahan who's 1 from 7, running a -59shots over the last 4 games & then look to sit Turra onto Nicel to control a blowout then Wanneroo should put themselves in a strong position to grab at least 6pts here but they will be surely playing for 8 given what's happening at the top of the ladder.
Another front end call out to Whitman & McMurdo who are travelling great this year & giving the Roo's a huge amount up front. With some other rinks having some front end changes these guys are consistently finishing in the winning sides which gives the Roo's a good look at the Agg every week. In saying that I probably can't leave out Brad Nelson as a 2nd mostly to Turra & has only lost 2 games all season, after missing a few games here & there, giving him the best record together with Wilkes (Safety Bay) out of over 230 players this season.
The Kookaburra's have won 5 at home this season so they'll be right up for this one & there is no easy games left from here. They are normally good to score 80+ shots at home & the Roo's are not regulars at putting up over 80+shots away so it should be a close contest.