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With only 6 games to go R13 is always the tipping point for getting serious about Finals or survival. It's seem like there's a significant amount of points left to win or loss but those available 48pts soon disappear over February & so does the runway.
As per our annual tradition we conduct a get together twice a session to 'predict' what 5pm on Saturday 16 March 2024 might look like. For those new to this, normally we'll do this after R6 & R12. Yes it's for fun but we've seen some deadly accurate predictions over the years & then some wildly inaccurate ones as the odd side go on a dreamy purple run over the last 6 games. So without further delay here we go.....drum roll......
Above we have the actual points after R6 & R12, then the FINAL is the 'predicted' thumb suck result after R18. R11 has caused some changes in the predicted final total points so some have benefitted & others less so. For Finals we have Kats, Titans, The Bay & Eagles. This is quite similar to the current position so unless there is some major upsets or Mossies or Leeming would need to go right through to R18 unbeaten for them to change those 4. I would be surprised to not see Finals be contained with those 4. Safety Bay & Manning might swap but it should have minimal impact as they'll play each other in Finals anyway.
For survival we seem to be looking at 67.5pts this year. Last year was slightly lower but the few seasons before that it was in the 70's so 67.5pts is probably a fair reflection of that mid-table robbery where everyone seems capable of beating each other weekly. No doubt demotion goes down to the last day except for The View who are currently viewing 1 Blue with some assurance. Who could play in the playoffs for demotion? It's really 4 sides Mossies, Lions, Lions & Kookaburra's. Very difficult to split them into the 2 survivors & 2 playoffs contenders. You would absolutely fancy either of those 4 sides against a 1 Blue side all day long but we thought that with Quinns last year & look what happened on the day.
Again the above is purely for fun & does that a huge amount of effort to pull together so please take it in jest but on a serious note if you're not happy where you're predicted to finish, show up tomorrow!! Good Luck all on the official run home from R13.
KARDINYA v MANNING
KARDINYA
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MANNING
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The Kats are as wobbly as a drunken sailor with multiple wheels falling off the wagon over the last few games. The invincibles before Christmas & haven't won a game in 2024, madness. The predictions still have them winning comfortably & taking that golden ticket to the big dance but surely some are getting nervous after counting all the chickens before they are hatched. The champagne might need to go back on ice for a few weeks.
The Eagles are unbeaten recently with 4 on the trot & wouldn't this be a huge scalp for them. They wouldn't mind playing at Kardinya & the speed will not worry them either. Yes the Kats destroyed them in the corresponding fixture but the Kats are on the ropes & are weaker at the knees than a 22yr old bloke heading up the Eiffel Tower with a diamond in his pocket.
Kardinya 7 - 1
SAFETY BAY v MOSMAN PARK
SAFETY BAY
G Smith, S Foran, J Brannan, T Bochat
Z Boddy, G Taylor, S Gallon, D Smith
C Carruthers, J Thorington, G Ogg, J Hanafee
M Mortensen, S Hide, M Ovens, A Ballard IN: C Owen OUT: S Gallon
MOSMAN PARK
C Hoffman, D Adams, J Pallett, M Whiting
M Cranswick, L Onley jnr, J Adams, A O'Sullivan
M Robertson, K Stower, R Kershaw, N Parker
S Swanson, T Cranswick, J Kop, M Van Bemmel IN: OUT: No changes
GAME OF THE ROUND: The Bay host probably the hottest team in the comp at the moment & many won't have said that would be Mossies after 2 from the first 6. However, they have put on their big boy pants from there & only lost 1 single game away to Gosnells by a slender 11 shots. They achieved some giant killing in R12, so they'll be up & about for this tough assignment. Mossies need this exact game if they wish to challenge for that 4th Finals spot but also on the flip-side lets not forget that after R6 Mossies were bottom, yes bottom, of the ladder on 15pts after 6 rounds. Massive congrats on how they have turned their season around that they can actually now dream of maybe Finals.
The Bay themselves were absolutely the hottest side until R12 as they had 4 on the trot & were humming along with some big wins in there too. We only have The Bay winning 2 of the next 4 so dropping this could really harm that Finals spot.
Gosnells 7 - 1
BASSENDEAN v GOSNELLS
BASSENDEAN
J Krstic, T Lynch, A Parravicini, S Colegate
B Roper, D Killisch Von Horn, P Hutchinson, N Kirkup
E O'Sullivan, N Hall, G Malaspina, A Britton
B Dinnison, S Davies, N Strachan, J Holman IN: J Krstic, B Roper, D Killisch von Horn, S Colegate, S Davies OUT: M Watson, A Southern, R D'Souza, S Bermingham, G Sadler
GOSNELLS
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The Lions are sitting 8th & that's not surprising after only winning 1 game since R6. Winning 3 games a season only means 1 thing & that's not Finals. They need 4 of the last 6 to get to safety & that will not be an easy task with some big games on their run home.
There were only 10 shots in the corresponding fixture which may lead to the Lions advantage & the Lions did get 2.5 of the 4 rinks wins. The kookaburra's need to maintain vigilance on that 4th blow out rink & we have seen that time & time again at Basso where 1 rink can do enough damage to cover the cracks elsewhere. Gosnells need some points here no matter what as Rossmoyne want out of finishing 9th & there's only 4.5pts in the predictions.
Bassendean 6 - 2
DOUBLEVIEW v LEEMING
DOUBLEVIEW
B Heta, M Leed, D Leed, N Feletti
C McKenna, L Martin, C Curham, T Pervan
M Young, M Fredericks, J Steele, F Williamson
G Papadopoulos, B Conway, R Leed, A Bloxham IN: R Leed OUT: D Cosgrove
LEEMING
P Boys, P Dobie, B Eather, P Hickey
K Vandersluys, G Fewings, D Johnson, W Birrell
G Ford, T Higham, W Blake, N Bennetts
J Newton, J Bowden, L Mundri, M Bowden IN: W Blake OUT: G Burgess
Hard to back The View after they have only accumulated 10pts since after R6 to R12 but this one is critical to their survival, so they'll either be up & ready or it's curtains. They ran the Kookaburra's & The View close in the last 2 games but will need a big step up here.
The Lions are equally circling the wrong end of the table after showing such promise early. It is very close around that mid-section but every point counts at this stage so they'll be looking for a minimum of 6pts here & the probability is there that they will get the Agg but it will be close.
Doubleview 6.5 - 1.5
COCKBURN v ROSSMOYNE
COCKBURN
D Gibson, D Bandy, J Wray, D Gurr
M Abonnel, J Ricci, K Elborough, B Blagaich
T Krajancic, J Marevic, I Mateljak, M Musulin
W Tepania, P Brotherston, K Wylie, D Ravlich IN: K Wylie, K Elborough, D Ravlich OUT: A Edwards, M Simunovic, J Reale
ROSSMOYNE
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Apologies first to the TITANS, slip of the tongue last round referring to an older nickname, old habits. Thanks for the corro.
Wonderful contest ahead here as the Titans have a solid chance to lock away a Finals spot & dream of that 2nd ticket to the big dance. No major changes for this week sees them in prime position against a side they did beat in the corresponding fixture by 9 shots so it's very difficult to go against them here even though The Bay ran them to the last bowl at home in R12.
The River Rats have been more competitive on the road this season but at Cockburn is a tough ask for most sides. There was only 12 shots in this fixture last season so Rossmoyne wouldn't be far away for most of the game. Cockburn for me to make it 6 on the trot & lock away a Finals spot.